War on the Moon

War on the Moon

Sam Dinkin thinks that a war on the moon would be a good way to establish property rights.

There has been a blogospheric discussion about war in space over the last few days, much of it sparked by this poorly-sourced Reuters article. But let's just go through a what-if scenario anyhow: What if China does manage to land men on the moon in 2017, the year before NASA is planning to return to the moon? Would China go to war over the moon? Would the USA? Is such a war even possible?

Let's make some assumptions. First of all, assume that such a war would not be Total War, with nuclear missiles being lobbed back and forth between the two countries; that while there might be some engagements on the earth, they would be limited to things like cutting the supply line by taking out launch installations or some other critical link in the supply chain. Further, assume that the economies of China and the USA remain entwined for the foreseeable future. Such a war would take place largely on the moon itself, rather than damaging critical (to both sides) economic edifices on the earth.

What would trigger such a war? One possibility is the Chinese landing a base there and attempting to prevent any of those evil alt.space companies from doing the same, ostensibly to "preserve the common heritage of all mankind" while simultaneously developing resources there on their own.

Would it be possible for China to put a base at the lunar south pole and project military power to the lunar north pole? This implies a lot of materiel at the south polar base: multiple missiles with enough range to reach the north pole, or to intercept incoming traffic between earth orbit and the moon.

The supply line between the earth and the moon is very long and narrow. Long supply lines are a disaster for any protracted campaign; the severing of any point along the line means that your soldiers starve or run out of ammunition. There aren't too many alternate routes besides a Hohmann transfer orbit, unless you want to burn a lot more fuel than you need to (which reduces your payload). So, the entire supply line for both sides of the battle are extremely vulnerable. In a campaign that lasts longer than a few missile launches, the combatants would need to have bases large enough to produce their own food and weaponry. The Chinese lunar south pole base would have to be largely self-sufficient.

This implies a very large base, much larger than is currently envisioned by either the Chinese or American government space programs. It is doubtful that either side could produce a self-sufficient base before the other side established a substantial toehold.

Suppose the war is put off until after such a base is built and staffed. Is it reasonable to assume that a self-sufficient base would remain under the control of the earth government that put it there? If a lunar base is large enough to be self-sufficient, and is therefore no longer dependent upon an earth government to sustain itself, then it becomes a de facto nation of its own. And it would be a nation in possession of the ultimate high ground; at the top of the gravity well, it would only take a small nudge to strike at any point on the earth.

For this reason I think it is unlikely that either China or NASA would establish a self-sufficient base; an alt.space company on the other hand might find it very attractive to become its own lunar-based nation, if it could make a profit in doing so. Therefore, if any war occurs on the moon, it would not be China vs. the USA; it would be between competing private companies / new nations.

Would such a war be good for either party? My crystal ball gets a little hazy at this point. The establishment of alt.space city-states is far enough in the future that any extrapolation beyond that time is based upon a very tall, thin thread of reasoning, even more brittle than what I have indulged in above.

Update: Jon Goff shows why the scenario I use above, for how such a war could start, would be indefensible under the international law that China would be purporting to defend. Rand Simberg and Mark Whittington are getting into a rather entertaining pissing match over this topic.

Update 2: Wheeee, this is fun. Mark Whittington fires back at Jon and Rand.

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